Why response times matter and how to make your vote count

Those who try to justify Conservative controlled West Sussex County Council's inadequate fire & rescue service response standards will claim that response times don't matter. They will also falsely claim that the risk to people and property varies according to their geographic location.

Response times matter

Research has shown that fires can double in size every minute. That means twice the amount of material burning and twice the amount of toxic smoke produced every minute. This graph shows that doubling in size against response times. 

It shows that once you get to ten minutes, the opportunity to save lives and property rapidly decreases. That is why, when further research has been carried out to identify optimum response times, the conclusions are usually ten minutes or less. 

Response times for the first fire engine

1 = West Midlands (whole area) - 5 minutes

2 = Hampshire (whole area) - 8 minutes

3 = Surrey (whole area) and 2% of West Sussex - 10 minutes

4 = 37% of West Sussex - 12 minutes

5 = 61% of West Sussex - 14 minutes

 

Risk is NOT different in different locations

Conservative County Councillors would have you believe that most of West Sussex is 'low risk' (blue) and most of the rest 'medium risk' (yellow). Yet, as the previous graph shows, any fire can develop and threaten lives and property just as quickly. Anywhere in West Sussex, from East Wittering to East Grinstead, or from Southwick to South Harting, the risk to lives and property is the same. The location is irrelevant when it comes to how quickly a fire will develop, only a lack of material to burn and any efforts to control it will slow it down.

When the response standards for different areas were approved, they had nothing to do with the real risk to lives and property. They simply set standards they expected could be met with the resources they had. Since then, they have cut four operational fire stations and eleven operational fire engines and crews. 

Inadequate resources mean that it is now impossible for 

firefighters to meet those already inadequate standards. 

How to make your vote count

Someone asked me recently why, when they only had half the votes cast, four in every five County Councillors elected in 2017 were Conservative. They also asked how the other half of voters could be properly represented in future.

2017 County Council Election

Political Party	Votes cast	Councillors elected
Conservative	51%	80%
Others	49%	20%

The long term answer is a change to a properly democratic election system that makes sure that Councillors are elected in proportion to votes. In the short term, however, the only viable option is to vote tactically. Now I know some people are uncomfortable with tactical voting, but if your priority is to prevent the Conservatives continuing their inept, deceitful, secretive and arrogant neglect of the fire & rescue service, it may be your only option.

In case it will help anyone, I have looked at the election results from four years ago to see which parties either beat the Conservatives or came second. Some second and third places were close, so I have shown the votes cast for each. I have also adjusted options where a party is not contesting a seat this time. 

County Council Division	Potential best tactical vote option
Angmering & Findon	Liberal Democrat
Arundel & Courtwick	Labour Party
Bersted	Liberal Democrat
Bewbush & Ifield West	Labour Party
Billingshurst	Liberal Democrat
Bognor Regis East	Liberal Democrat
Bognor Regis West & Aldwick	Liberal Democrat
Bourne	Liberal Democrat
Bramber Castle	Liberal Democrat
Broadbridge	Liberal Democrat
Broadfield	Labour Party
Broadwater	Labour Party
Burgess Hill East	Liberal Democrat
Burgess Hill North	Close (Liberal Democrat 476, Labour Party 463)
Chichester East	Liberal Democrat
Chichester North	Liberal Democrat
Chichester South	Green Party
Chichester West	Liberal Democrat
Cissbury	Close (Liberal Democrat 429, Labour Party 355)
Cuckfield & Lucastes	Liberal Democrat
Durrington & Salvington	Liberal Democrat
East Grinstead Meridian	Close (Labour Party 294, Liberal Democrat 261)
East Grinstead South & Ashurst Wood	Liberal Democrat
East Preston & Ferring	Close (Labour Party 474, Liberal Democrat 427)
Felpham	Close (Labour Party 241, Liberal Democrat 231)
Fontwell	Green Party
Goring	Labour Party
Hassocks & Burgess Hill South	Liberal Democrat
Haywards Heath East	Close (Labour Party 460, Liberal Democrat 438)
Haywards Heath Town	Liberal Democrat
Henfield	Liberal Democrat
Holbrook	Liberal Democrat
Horsham East	Liberal Democrat
Horsham Hurst	Liberal Democrat
Horsham Riverside	Liberal Democrat
Hurstpierpoint & Bolney	Liberal Democrat
Imberdown	Independent (I. P. Gibson)
Lancing	Labour Party
Langley Green & Ifield East	Labour Party
Lindfield & High Weald	Liberal Democrat
Littlehampton East	Liberal Democrat
Littlehampton Town	Liberal Democrat
Maidenbower & Worth	Labour Party
Middleton	Close (Labour Party 256, Liberal Democrat 237)
Midhurst	Liberal Democrat
Northbrook	Liberal Democrat
Northgate & West Green	Labour Party
Nyetimber	Close (Labour Party 280 Green Party 211)
Petworth	Liberal Democrat
Pound Hill	Labour Party
Pulborough	Liberal Democrat
Rother Valley	Liberal Democrat
Rustington	Liberal Democrat
Selsey	Local Alliance
Shoreham North	Labour Party
Shoreham South	Labour Party
Sompting & North Lancing	Labour Party
Southgate & Gossops Green	Labour Party
Southwater & Nuthurst	Liberal Democrat
Southwick	Labour Party
St Leonard’s Forest	Liberal Democrat
Storrington	Liberal Democrat
Tarring	Liberal Democrat
The Witterings	Close (Liberal Democrat 339, Labour Party 282)
Three Bridges	Labour Party
Tilgate & Furnace Green	Labour Party
Worth Forest	Liberal Democrat
Worthing East	Labour Party
Worthing Pier	Labour Party
Worthing West	Labour Party

It is of course impossible to precisely predict which candidates stand the best chance of defeating the Conservatives. The table is simply a guide to the last County Council election results, so it may be worth checking for any recent change in voting habits in your area since then. However, you should note that County Council Divisions cover different areas to borough, district and Parliamentary seats.

Remember, the Conservatives have already been discussing:

• Manipulating statistics to make bad figures look better by removing the worst ones;
• Sending fire engines without enough firefighters on them, simply to make response times look better;
• Preventing Councillors scrutinising their decisions and failures by claiming they are 'operational';
• And even extending the already poor response time targets.

If they secure a majority in this election, the risks we all face will be even greater than they are now.

Our Fire & Rescue Service is not safe

in Conservative hands